As the country gears up for General Elections this summer, all eyes are on the upcoming Union Budget scheduled for February 1, 2024, at 11:00 am. This year’s budget labelled as ‘Interim Budget,’ is a short-term financial plan for the outgoing government to manage finances until the new government takes charge. Unlike regular budgets, an Interim Budget doesn’t include the presentation of the Economic Survey, a detailed analysis of the country’s economic performance.
Generally, the outgoing government refrains from making major announcements in an Interim Budget to avoid significant influence on voters before the elections. However, there have been instances where outgoing finance ministers strategically shaped budgetary measures to leave an impact.
In 2014, P Chidambaram of UPA II adjusted expenses to the following year to present a better Fiscal Deficit for FY14, facing criticism for reducing capital expenditure without addressing subsidies. Also, In 2019, Piyush Goyal of the NDA government introduced tax relief for small taxpayers and launched the PM-KISAN scheme, providing Rs. 6,000 per annum support to small farmers.
What to Expect?
As the BJP government is looking to return to power, some of our expectations for this Interim Budget include:
- Targeting a Fiscal Deficit for FY25 in the range of 5-5.5% of GDP lower by 30-40 bps from the targeted ~5.8% of FY24. Medium term target of 4.5% by FY26.
- Targeting a nominal GDP growth between 11%-11.5% for FY25, surpassing the ~9% number for FY24
- Continued focus on capital expenditure and infrastructure spending
- Prioritizing the strengthening of the agriculture and manufacturing sectors.
- Potential adjustments in standard deduction and tax slabs for individuals to help boost disposable income
- Reducing the arbitrage between equity and debt investments to make debt attractive. Currently, equities are taxed at 10%/15% for Long/Short-term Gains, while income from debt instruments faces slab rate taxation. This leads to a sub-optimal return post-tax. Thereby, the debt market remains under-penetrated.
In summary, an Interim Budget is not a major event that significantly impacts investments. However, there remains a slight hope for positive developments after the budget announcement. Watch out this space for our update on February 1, 2024, when the Finance Minister unveils what’s in store for the people of the Republic of India.
Note: The opinions presented reflect the beliefs of the author and the team of analysts. They should not be regarded as recommendations. Investing carries inherent market risks, and it is advisable to carefully read the offer documents before making any investment decisions.
